Making better predictions

This is a very interesting study on making better predictions. The 3 key takeaways are-

  • Change your mind a little bit, frequently. It suggests that you should be open to change and use new information to adjust your thinking slightly and do that often.
  • Diverse ideas and perspectives make predictions better. That is why working as a team or at least consulting others is always a good idea.
  • Make specific predictions. For example, when investing in a start up, predict whether a company can reach £100 million of annual revenue after 10 years rather than predicting whether it could become a great successful business. This creates accountability and forces one to adjust their thinking about how things really work.

Read the original article at This study tried to improve our ability to predict major geopolitical events. It worked.


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